The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an analytical report entitled The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy. Unfortunately, the report is not free from bias and distortion as its authors tried their best not to mention Russia’s activities in building new nuclear capacity, including small-scale generation. For this reason, we will supplement the report with information about the Russian nuclear industry.
The report admits, though, that Russia and China are the most active players of the nuclear power market. It is them who give an impetus to the development of the nuclear industry. Out of 52 reactors established worldwide since 2017, 25 are of Chinese design and 23 are of Russian design. The countries that are traditionally called ‘developed economies’ account for most of the global nuclear reactor fleet, but China is expected to overtake both the United States and the European Union in terms of total installed capacity by 2030.
“Rejuvenating this fleet has not been easy: the nuclear industry in long-time market leaders, such as the United States and France, has struggled in recent years with project delays and cost overruns for all new large-scale reactors,” says the report. This statement is reflective of the biggest controversy of the report: the authors try to give the US the semblance of a leader, while maintaining accuracy in describing the facts showing that Russia and China are in the lead. The authors see this situation as a risk, but it is actually a great opportunity for those who would prefer working with Rosatom, a company that is continuously improving its technology and solutions.
23 out of 52
reactors under construction worldwide are of Russian design
“We keep going forward despite our confident position in the nuclear world. We are evolving to make our products and solutions more perfect in terms of engineering, unparalleled safety, and cost effectiveness. We are currently developing a power reactor unit that will be more powerful and have improved operating and economic performance, to be built both in Russia and other countries,” said Valery Kryzhanovsky, Chief Designer at OKB Gidropress, commenting on the shipment of a VVER-1000 reactor to India’s Kudankulam NPP.
The authors of the report are confident that nuclear generation will continue to grow in each of the three scenarios they proposed. The first of them, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), assumes that current policies are maintained; another one, the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), assumes that countries and organizations meet their commitments; the third scenario, Net Zero Emissions (NZE), shows a pathway for the energy sector to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. “The global nuclear fleet expands in each of the three scenarios. Capacity rises by around half from 416 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2023 to 650 GW by 2050 in the STEPS, more than doubles to 870 GW in the APS, and exceeds 1,000 GW in the NZE Scenario (Figure 2.3). Lifetime extensions play an important role in each case. For example, they account for around 150 GW, or 20% of global capacity, in 2040 in the APS,” says the report.
The report’s summary focuses mainly on small modular reactors (SMRs): “Cost-competitive SMRs, boosted by government support and new business models, can help clear the path to a new era for nuclear energy.” However, the body of the report notes that SMRs will not dominate the nuclear power industry of the future although the interest in them persists: “Large-scale reactors make up most new nuclear capacity in all scenarios; in the APS, over 500 GW of them are built from 2024 to 2050.”
It should be noted that Rosatom plans to build 38 large, medium and small-scale power reactors in Russia by 2042, with some of them being the first of their kind. Their total installed capacity will be 29.3 GW. Of these, there will be eight 1,200 MW reactors, seven 1,255 MW reactors, two 1,000 MW reactors, and five 600 MW reactors.
SMRs will be built as well. For example, it is planned to put in operation the world’s first nuclear power plant with a lead-cooled fast neutron reactor BREST-OD-300. Rosatom is also working on the construction of floating power units with RITM-200 reactors to supply power to the Baimsky GOK mining site, making on-site preparations to pour concrete for the foundation of the Yakutian SMR nuclear power plant with an onshore modification of the RITM-200 reactor, and implementing projects to develop small-scale nuclear power plants with RITM-400 and SHELF reactors.
38 reactors
with a total capacity of 29.3 GW will be built in Russia by 2042
In addition, Rosatom was the first ever company to conclude an export contract for the construction of an SMR nuclear power plant. Six power units with RITM-200 reactors will be built in the Jizzak Region of Uzbekistan. Finally, the world’s only floating nuclear power plant Akademik Lomonosov supplies power and heat to the town of Pevek in Chukotka. All these facts demonstrate that it is Rosatom that holds the leading position in the small modular reactor segment globally.
In the three years from 2020, annual investment in nuclear energy, both in new capacity and life extensions, increased by nearly 50% to more than USD 60 billion. Investment in nuclear generation and installed capacity is expected to increase globally in each of the three scenarios, the report says.
The STEPS assumes quite a modest growth, from about USD 65 billion in 2023 to around USD 70 billion in 2030. New large-scale reactors will account for nearly 80 percent of investment in 2030, while SMRs will account for as little as 10 percent. The remaining 10 percent will be invested in life extension and capacity expansion projects. However, annual investment in nuclear energy will decline after 2030, especially after 2040, amounting to only USD 45 billion in 2050. The report attributes the decline to a downturn in the construction of new reactors in China and a decrease in investment in both large-scale reactors and SMRs.
The APS sees investment in nuclear power to nearly double worldwide and stand around USD 120 billion in 2030, including about USD 25 billion to be invested in small-scale nuclear generation. Afterwards, investment in both large-scale and low-capacity plants will decline sharply down to USD 60 billion in 2050. SMRs will account for over a third of total investment in nuclear generation after 2040. As seen by the IEA experts, the decline will be driven by the fact that national energy systems will approach or reach full decarbonization by 2050. As a consequence, new low-emission capacity will require less investment.
In the NZE scenario, investment is estimated to reach USD 155 billion in 2030 and then decline to about USD 70 billion by 2050. The authors of the report also attribute these figures to accelerated decarbonization processes across national energy systems by 2040.
In each of the scenarios, stronger-than-forecast growth in electricity demand could improve prospects for a more consistent investment in nuclear energy over the long term.
According to the IEA, cumulative investment in nuclear generation between 2024 and 2050 could reach USD 1.7 trillion in the STEPS, USD 2.5 trillion in the APS, and around USD 2.9 trillion in the NZE scenario.
The forthcoming increase in money flowing into the global nuclear industry seems to be encouraging but for one thing. If we compare the IEA estimates with investment in other energy segments, it becomes obvious that, unfortunately, investor interest in nuclear energy remains extremely low. For example, British Petroleum’s Energy Outlook published in July 2024 says that investment in low-carbon energy sources has grown very rapidly in recent years. It has increased by nearly 50% since 2019, reaching about USD 1.9 trillion in 2023. A simple comparison of the available figures shows that the contribution of nuclear generation to the total investment in low-carbon energy sources was about 3.4% in 2023, and the estimated investment in nuclear over 27 years in the STEPS is lower than the investment in low-carbon generation in 2023 alone.
> $60 B
is invested every year in nuclear energy globally
IEA experts point out that the long-established financing models, such as public-private partnerships or project financing, are not well suited for financing the construction of new capacity due to the risks associated with long service lives, high costs, cost overruns, and long-lead times before any investment starts to pay back. Therefore, nuclear projects need continuous government support. This is especially true for the first-of-a-kind projects.
The risk of cost overruns in such projects cannot be mitigated without well-developed production capabilities, strong and flexible supply chains, streamlined project delivery processes, standardized equipment production, and qualified personnel.
This is what applies to Rosatom in full. The Russian nuclear corporation has in-house production facilities capable of manufacturing the necessary equipment, powerful computers and software systems enabling complex calculations needed for the design and construction of nuclear reactors, assemblies, components, fuel, core simulation, and much more.
Rosatom develops new designs, which are first implemented in Russia, commercializes them, and then offers new products to the customers all over the world. VVER-1200 may serve as an example from the large-scale reactor segment. Power units with these reactors have been built at Russia’s Leningrad and Novovoronezh nuclear power plants, and also in Belarus. The same-design units are being built in Russia, China, Turkey, Egypt, and Bangladesh. In the near future, construction of VVER-1200 reactors will begin in Hungary. Examples from the small modular reactor segment comprise RITM-200, a reactor that has been powering Project 22220 icebreakers for several years and is now installed at offshore and onshore low-capacity power plants. The next step will be the deployment of Generation IV energy systems that will use thermal neutron and fast neutron reactors to close the nuclear fuel cycle. “In the next decade, we will start using this technology to build large-scale power units in our country and offering it to international customers,” said Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev, speaking at the Knowledge. State forum in late January.
Rosatom keeps improving and upgrading its technology, solutions and materials for power units and nuclear fuel by introducing, for example, additive technologies and composite materials. The production culture is being improved, and improvements, often developed by Rosatom employees, are introduced into the production and business processes. Finally, extensive work is going on to train qualified professionals for the industry, and it often begins as early as at schools and sometimes kindergartens.
Thus, Rosatom has many years been putting into practice what IEA experts only present to their target audience.
Photo by: Leningrad NPP, Kursk NPP, Floating NPP, Petrozavodskmash
