This April, the latest Red Book edition titled ‘Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand’ was released, providing an overview of the uranium mining industry. The report concludes that the years of low investment in the sector (including exploration, mine construction, and production) are over as money inflows continue to grow. Existing reserves are sufficient to supply natural uranium for all operating and planned nuclear power plants through 2050. However, additional funding will be needed to ensure a steady supply beyond that timeframe.
Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand is a biennial review prepared jointly by experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). The latest edition analyzes data from 2021 and 2022, along with some preliminary figures for 2023 and 2024. It also includes forecasts for changes in installed nuclear capacity across different regions and globally, as well as projections for natural uranium demand through 2050 and beyond.
This section highlights the key trend of 2021–2022: global investments in exploration and mine development have started to grow, reversing the declining trend seen in previous years. As an example, while domestic spending on uranium exploration and mine construction dropped to just USD 380 million in 2020 due to low uranium prices, it rebounded to USD 800 million in 2022 thanks to renewed interest in nuclear energy. Preliminary data for 2023 suggests an increase to USD 840 million. Still, this remains below the USD 1.5–2.1 billion spent annually before the economic and sector downturn.
Spending on exploration outside national borders has also risen globally, climbing from USD 50 million in 2020 to roughly USD 70 million in 2022. Early data for 2023 shows investment in international exploration reaching USD 80 million.
Leading investors in exploration and mine development include Canada, China, Russia, India, Namibia, and Uzbekistan, which together account for 90% of total investment.
Overall, uranium resource estimates have changed little compared to the previous edition of the report. Australia continues to lead in terms of identified recoverable resources.
Total identified recoverable resources with production cost under USD 260/kg exceed 7.9 million metric tons of uranium globally. Within this category, reasonably assured resources (60% of the total) grew by 1% over two years, while inferred resources (40% of the total) remained roughly unchanged. Recoverable resources with production cost under USD 130/kg declined by 3% compared to 2021, reaching 5.9 million metric tons of uranium. Declines were even sharper in lower cost categories, down 6% in the under-USD 80/kg category and 14% in the under-USD 40/kg category. These declines were primarily due to large-scale reclassifications in Brazil and Uzbekistan.
Only four countries reported resources in the under USD 40/kg cost category, with 75% concentrated in Kazakhstan. The report notes that reclassifying resources into higher-cost categories has become a recent trend.
Interesting data appears in a table showing reasons behind major changes in uranium resources, broken down by country and category (exploration status and production cost). For example, Uzbekistan and the United States exhausted their under-USD 40/kg uranium resources over the past two years between the Red Book editions. In Uzbekistan, high-cost reserves (over USD 260/kg) were written off, along with depleted stocks, while some inferred resources were reclassified as reasonably assured, and so on. All these revisions led to a loss of 67,700 metric tons of uranium. Some countries, such as Bulgaria, Cameroon, and Pakistan, reported uranium resources for the first time. Egypt and Saudi Arabia saw increases in their resources, with growth in the latter tied to the uranium and thorium deposits at Jabal Sayid. Namibia booked a significant increase of 41,200 metric tons across its top three cost categories.
with a share of 43%
Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer
Global uranium mine output hit a low in 2021 at 47,361 metric tons. The decline was driven primarily by reduced production in Kazakhstan and Canada due to weak market prices and the pandemic, and by the closure of the Ranger mine in Australia. This downward trend lasted five years before reversing in 2022, when production rose by 5% to 49,490 metric tons. A year later, in 2023, the growth doubled, bringing uranium output to 54,345 metric tons, though still 14% below the peak of nearly 63,000 metric tons achieved in 2016.
In 2022, uranium was mined in 17 countries, with Kazakhstan leading at 43% of global output. The country produced twice as much as Canada, Namibia, Australia, and Uzbekistan combined, which are the second through fifth largest producers, respectively. Russia ranked sixth, followed by Niger, China, and India at seventh, eighth, and ninth places. Together, these nine countries accounted for 99% of global uranium production.
In 2022, in-situ leaching (ISL) dominated uranium extraction methods, accounting for around 60% of global output, though its share dropped to 55% in 2023 due to the restart of Canada’s underground McArthur River mine.
The Red Book outlines two — low-case and high-case — scenarios for nuclear energy development. Demand for uranium is assessed accordingly. As of January 1, 2023, there were 438 operational nuclear reactors worldwide with a combined electrical capacity of 394 GW. According to expert estimates, they require approximately 59,000 metric tons of uranium annually. Under the low-case scenario, installed nuclear capacity would grow to 574 GW, requiring about 90,000 metric tons of uranium annually. The high-case scenario projects 900 GW of installed capacity, demanding 142,000 metric tons of uranium per year.
East Asia is expected to see the highest growth in capacity, rising to either 212 GW or 354 GW under the low- and high-case scenarios, respectively. Nuclear capacity in Central and South Asia and the Middle East (grouped together in the Red Book) is projected to reach 17.4 GW under the high-case scenario or 7.4 GW in the low case. Southeast Asia would remain without nuclear power under the low-case scenario but could reach 7 GW in the high case. In non-EU European countries (including Russia), total nuclear capacity is forecast to rise to 104 GW in the low case or 124 GW in the high case. The outlook for EU nations is less optimistic: the low-case scenario projects installed capacity to fall by 17% compared to 2022 levels (to 83.5 GW), while the high-case scenario predicts a 33% increase (to 133.7 GW). Africa’s potential stands at 11.3 GW or 20.3 GW, respectively. In North America, total nuclear capacity would decrease to 88.6 GW or rise to 141.8 GW.
“The key factors shaping the future of nuclear energy capacity include growing electricity demand, the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants, innovative financing solutions for these capital-intensive projects, resilient supply chains, robust waste management strategies, public acceptance, and alignment with national energy security objectives,” the report notes.
The world holds enough uranium to meet global nuclear demand through 2050 under any scenario.
Currently, the world holds enough uranium to meet global nuclear demand through 2050 under any scenario. Even the high-case scenario would require only about 50% of identified resources in the under-USD 130/kg cost category, or roughly 35% of resources with the production cost below USD 260/kg. However, resource availability does not guarantee stable uranium production.
Mines supplied about 85% of global nuclear industry needs in 2022, up from 79% in 2020. The remaining demand was met by secondary sources (government and commercial stockpiles, reprocessed fuel, depleted uranium, enrichment tails, etc.). As noted in the Red Book, power companies have built up substantial reserves in recent years, purchasing uranium at low prices to hedge against supply disruptions, which have been a persistent issue since the pandemic.
Rising prices have encouraged owners of mothballed mines to restart operations. However, bringing dormant sites back online and constructing new uranium production facilities face multiple hurdles that delay full-scale production. According to the Red Book authors, if low demand materializes, uranium supply could keep pace only until 2031; under high demand, the limit is 2027. After that, shortages may emerge. “While secondary sources will continue to supply a portion of uranium demand, it is crucial to bring new facilities online from planned and prospective production centers and to sustain exploration efforts to identify additional resources,” the report says.
It is crucial to bring new facilities online from planned and prospective production centers and to sustain exploration efforts to identify additional resources.
Fulfilling these recommendations will not be easy, as launching new facilities requires substantial investment and technical expertise. Producers may face complex and unpredictable obstacles, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, technical issues, and local community resistance. The uranium market conditions will be a key factor in attracting investment for new production.
In the long term, closing the nuclear fuel cycle — by utilizing depleted uranium stocks and recycling mined uranium multiple times — could reshape the natural uranium market. Rosatom considers this approach a strategic priority for the future of nuclear energy, making the closed fuel cycle technologies a reality as part of its Proryv (Breakthrough) Project.
Photo by: TVEL, Wikipedia, Kazatomprom
